As we follow from international arena, we have already seen different developments between Iran and the US. International arena is already known with those kind of tensions. Especially between the US and Russia, we may also see sometimes Iran or China may have similar tensions between the US. It seems that it is part of political science or kind of international relations case. It may be also a specific case needs to be taken in hand in different style. Some of the developments may indicate us many thing such as political approach or attitude of a state may trigger some much bigger case as we saw in the World War I.

We will try to draw a picture that explains current situation based on recent developments in this article. The case consists of two chapters. First one is death of Soleimani and the second one is shot down of Ukraine aircraft.

Death of Soleimani

Before to summarize the fact, we know that sometimes US indicated Soulemani as a target for itself. However, we are used to those kind of hostile attitudes of US recently.

Qasem Solemani was known as Iranian major general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He had significant missions for Iran and moreover according to some sources he was seen as one of future potential leader for Iran.

On 3rd of January, Soleimani was killed by US drone strike near Baghdad International Airport. If we take the situation in hand in different style, we need to indicate that the US had warned its citizens about not to travel in Iran on 26th of December, 2019. Some other resources claimed that the US also have made an travel warning for Iraq but we do not see such as warning among the US’ travel advices. It may not wrong to say that maybe the US had already indicated that it will kill Qasim Soleimani.

That incident was one of the catastrophic incidents a state may face. One state kills another state’s major general in other state. Of course we should accept that if one state acts with its military power as it wishes without giving any details in another state, it means that landowning country lacks sovereignty. It was just like that for Iraq at least. The US didn’t kill just Iran’s general but also its political prestige. But, Iran was gonna give answer to that unexpected incident just as expected.

If we turn back to Soleimani’s death, it is clear that his death took all atention of Iranians. US killed one of major generals of Iran, but also it gives Iranian people a chance to unite against the itself involuntarily. Iran, which has been engaged in protests for a while, united around Soleimani’s funeral. However, that contested advantage situation did not last long. Iran passed to step-2 to take an action after Soleimani’s funeral but it did not happen as expected.

Ukraine Aircraft

Iran gave an answer to the US by firing its missiles targeting some US military bases in Iraq on 8th of January, 2020. Iran stated that approximately 80 American soldier killed in the attack while the US claimed that no one dead but it might be some material damage.

After just hours of Iran attack, international news released breaking news about Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) flight 752 (PS752) was crashed. There were 176 people including the crew in the aircraft. It took attention because it is an aviation crash and it happened just hours after Iran attack.

After crashed of the aircraft, international media sources started to argue about reasons but some of them also indicated that its suspicous timing while they were trying to find association with Iran’s attack. All media outlets focused on the crash and some of airlines started to take precautions regarding the incident. Some airlines such as Lufthansa, Ukraine International Airlines and Air France stopped their flights to Iran-Iraq or using air zone of those countries temporarily.

Iran made a statement that they will not hand over the flight data recorder while they operated remove the wreckage. Iran claimed that they took that decision against any conspiracy theory of CIA or the USA itself. According to Iran, US or CIA could use the incident to decrease Iran’s prestige in international arena.

We need to point that the period with also effects of tech age, developments occur so fast and everything changes in vice versa in hours. Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau made a statement that they had some proofs about Ukraine aircraft incident shows Iran might hit it by mistake. And after hours, there was a video of shooting down of Ukraine aircraft in social media. At last, Iran’s religious leader Hamaney accepted that they shooted down the aircraft by mistake and they will share the flight data recorder with France to make them analyzed. Later, he also apologized from Ukraine and said that they will pay compensation to the families whose people lost their lives in the incident.

Summary

The US killed Iran’s one of major general in another state where is Iraq by drone strike. That incident caused losing prestige pretty much in international arena for Iran.

However, Iranian people united around Soleimani’s funeral so that was a temporarily a good view for Iran. Because even they had a sad incident and they showed all world that they were together, especially while they had struggling protests.

Iran tried to give an answer as possible but they made a huge mistake while they were trying. The incident caused 176 lives loss.

Iran lost prestige against other states, lost significant income based on its air zone and airports due to cancellation of flights or notams about its airside.

Similar situations are also valid for Iraq, some of air carriers took similar precautions for Iraq at least temporarily .

We need to specify that wars or conflicts may bring the actors some advantage such as land, money or power. But it is always temporarily advantage. It clearly seems that coordination, collaboration or mutual agreements between states is more beneficial to make the world better.

Resource

Image: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/timeline-us-iran-tension-since-collapse-of-nuke-deal/1697001 , 18th of Jan , 2020.

The post Analyze: Iran’s position in the international arena after high tension between the US appeared first on Risk Revise.

As it is known, Syria has some internal conflicts in its own management. While Bassar al-Assad is trying to control his land, many divided groups also tries the same. One of them is PYD that is (Democratic Union Party) in Syria. PYD is a political side of Kurdish people. On the other side we have also YPG (Populist Protection Units) in Syria which is armed wing of PYD. There are also DAESH terror group in that region which tries to control also Iraq and Syria territories by triggering different kind of actions. Among those terrorist groups we could say Olive Branch Operation aims to eliminate those terror groups primarily.

Some states are in that region by act and also try to protect Syria’s territorial integrity. Russia and China mostly would like to protect its integrity, since an internal conflict has been occurred. And USA aims to fight with DAESH in that region. In this case, United Nations allies organized a few air attacks against that terrorist group on those territories but none of them implement a land operation. Because to make something, it could cost more than finance such as loss of own citizens in operations with prestige and etc. Finally, USA made some statements that it would help and train YPG against DAESH. However, they defend their ideaİ; they claimed that it is very innocent idea to use YPG against DAESH on land operations.

Beyond the Border

As far as we know, YPG is also wing of PKK indirectly. Because PYD is a deployed wing of PKK in Syria which makes YPG also a wing of PKK directly. Turkey, expressed its concerns on that issue many times to USA and that situation makes each state such a polar. In this case, we have to determine that there are many different news about what kind of war crimes PYD/YPG did or what kind of unlawful interventions occurred by them to the region’s people. There have been many news about USA’s aid to PYD/YPG units in international media outlets, although USA refused them all each time. So, Turkey warned its ally USA many times about that subject.

Map Image is taken from: https://www.trtworld.com/mea/turkey-s-afrin-operation-the-latest-updates-14443

How did the operation begin?

The region beyond the border of Turkey is dangerous even it is Syria’s territory, as Syria can not control it and govern it. Each time Turkey blamed USA by making aid to its enemies PKK, it refused all accusations and advocated that it just help other ingredients except for PKK and defend also its weapons are not gonna use against Turkey. However, USA is sure with that idea and believe, nobody can be sure especially for a group even it has some directly connections with PKK.

Finally, USA decide to create a border power to protect borders against DAESH militants and terrorist activities; but it forgot something that you can not destroy your enemy by another enemy. Probably USA confused, because as we all the simpliest discipline that “enemy of enemy is mine friend” is not available in that scenario. By right, Turkey warned one more time that it does not want any terror groups in or beyond its borders, furthermore there are many attacks came from other side of the border in history. That is how Operation Olive Branch started. Turkey said it a few times as a warning but nothing changed, but all states respect its actions on that issue. So, in the night of 20th of January, Turkish jets flew beyond the border and started to bomb YPG targets, Operation Olive Branch has started.

How has the operation been progressed?

Operation Olive Branch has started by Turkish jets’ bombings in first night. After bombing all the targets for a while they let Free Syrian Army forward through Afrin. Then, Turkish Army Force entered the region and started to take region’s villages one by one. We could see Turkey has a few point to forward march according to map above, so there will be probably a few hallway to enter the region and take control. As understood, Turkey has taken control of villages where they pass through and left FSA (Free Syrian Army) members as guards in the village.

International Reactions

Some states decided to stay neutral against Turkey’s operation at the beginning while some’s not. France call NATO for United Nations Security Council immediately in the frame of Operation Olive Branch. Turkish diplomats are also doing their best to explain the real and transparent ways of operation. They contact with everybody and try to use every diplomatic channel to be honest. On the other hand, NATO made a statement by remindering that every NATO member has a right to protect its borders. Turkey, informed all of its allies and seems like know how to play the game by obeying all the rules.

One of major actors in the region, Russia, claimed that the USA tested Turkey’s passion and limits. Therefore, Turkey chose that option olive branch as last but without any hesitation in international arena. At the beginning; the USA was not so soft agains the operation but after a while they have made soften their ideas by expressing that they have also respect agains Turkey’s concerns in the region. Syria sees that action as intervention to its internal issues and tries to show dissatisfaction. But, we know it also can not govern its some regions where operation is occurred. Turkey also made some statements about their concern and targets; as we understand, they are not planning to stay in those lands. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that they are not interested in stay in those lands. Their main target is just to clean region from terrorist activities.

What is expected at the end of the operation?

In the short term, we could not make clear assumptions in that scenario. But, in the long term, if everything goes well and without any contrariety, Turkey will probably clear the area it would like to. After cleaning it will probably provide safety and security in that region and after all would turn back to its borders. To prevent the second time like that scenario, sides may make an agreement on that issue by a resolution like cleared zone, safe-secure hallway or other options.

We know some states were colonial or aimed different gainings in foreigner landings, but Turkey has a cleared history for that. Furthermore, it may sound ironical but with its name, operation olive branch reflects its focus. Olive Branch is a symbol to show everybody they are doing something for peace, that is really an important point.

Cover image is taken from: http://trthaberstatic.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/resimler/828000/829164.jpg

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