It is literally hard to express what has happened exactly for both side. However, that article aims to analyze the situation for both side as possible.

Palestine and Israel has a conflict for a long time. On one side; Israel aims to capture “the promised lands” as their own speech, and on the other hand Palestine aims to survive, protect their landings and try to capture Jerusalem totally. Both side aims their goals for religious purpose.

To summarize a bit, on 7th october Hamas started an attack to Israel. It started with some gunmen rushed into the Israel from border to a musical festival. Moreover, many more gunmen started to enter from the Israeli border in different points; after breaching the Gaza fence Hamas fighters went to door to door to take Israelis as hostages. On the other hand, thousands of missiles fired from Gaza side to Israel and Israel’s iron dome was collapsed.

Are there any intelligence vulnarabilities for Israel?

In Hamas attack, people started to wonder that whether Israel has any intelligence vulnarabilities or not for that incident. Many OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) sources stated that it is expected due to Jewish Holiday.

Intelligence agencies mostly act pro-active for their homeland security and always warn some other units agains possible threats. On the other hand, after a while those warnings left their place to ignorance due to frequency and accuracy. Moreover, people in public mostly believes that the intel should have come from MOSSAD which is Israel’s Intelligence Agency. Even most of the people believes that job belongs to MOSSAD, the intel should have come from Shin Bet which is Israel’s internal intelligence agency. Aside from that, there have always been sporadic attacks in Israel on special dates. And that increases the predictivity of the attacks especially on 7th Oct. The date clearly chosen spesifically due to its importance. It is based on the same date of Arab attacks on Yom Kippur War on 1973 between Arab-Israel.

Lack of Preparation

The attacks are neither the first nor the last in the history of Israel that’s why Israel needs to be well-prepared against any attacks. Aside from vulnerability of intelligence, there are not prepared agencies internally against any attacks. Shin Bet and even Mossad may fail on intel-side, on the other side IDF (Israel Defence Forces) can not be successful for defending at the beginning. Some media such as videos showing that attacking to outpost, and soldiers withouth equipments, not attacking or not interested with us.

Counteraction

The final problem is counteraction. At the beginning, the attackers did not face with a serious barrier to stop or slow their attacks. On the contrary, they forward easily and without defender. None or very few officers tried to stop the attacks. At least, IDF sent its special forces to the area and started an operation to clear the region.

To summarize; although Israel has a large experience on security, intel was inadequate. Internal security was not prepared well enough and they were late to sent special forces to the region.

All aside, Prime Minister Netanyahu could not act and decide clearly, His descisions were not totally based on defending of people, they were usually based on political anxiety. And so much people rally to protest it and they even wanted Netanyahu to stop counter-attacks to Hamas. In that case, it is expected that there might be protests against Netanyahu or government in the coming months.

Image Source:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dont-let-free-expression-become-a-casualty-of-israel-hamas-war?ref=scroll

Source:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67039975

https://www.ft.com/content/42bbe534-8a0d-4ba8-9cc6-f84936d87196

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dont-let-free-expression-become-a-casualty-of-israel-hamas-war?ref=scroll

The post Analyze: What are the key issues on Israel-Hamas War? appeared first on Risk Revise.

As we follow from international arena, we have already seen different developments between Iran and the US. International arena is already known with those kind of tensions. Especially between the US and Russia, we may also see sometimes Iran or China may have similar tensions between the US. It seems that it is part of political science or kind of international relations case. It may be also a specific case needs to be taken in hand in different style. Some of the developments may indicate us many thing such as political approach or attitude of a state may trigger some much bigger case as we saw in the World War I.

We will try to draw a picture that explains current situation based on recent developments in this article. The case consists of two chapters. First one is death of Soleimani and the second one is shot down of Ukraine aircraft.

Death of Soleimani

Before to summarize the fact, we know that sometimes US indicated Soulemani as a target for itself. However, we are used to those kind of hostile attitudes of US recently.

Qasem Solemani was known as Iranian major general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He had significant missions for Iran and moreover according to some sources he was seen as one of future potential leader for Iran.

On 3rd of January, Soleimani was killed by US drone strike near Baghdad International Airport. If we take the situation in hand in different style, we need to indicate that the US had warned its citizens about not to travel in Iran on 26th of December, 2019. Some other resources claimed that the US also have made an travel warning for Iraq but we do not see such as warning among the US’ travel advices. It may not wrong to say that maybe the US had already indicated that it will kill Qasim Soleimani.

That incident was one of the catastrophic incidents a state may face. One state kills another state’s major general in other state. Of course we should accept that if one state acts with its military power as it wishes without giving any details in another state, it means that landowning country lacks sovereignty. It was just like that for Iraq at least. The US didn’t kill just Iran’s general but also its political prestige. But, Iran was gonna give answer to that unexpected incident just as expected.

If we turn back to Soleimani’s death, it is clear that his death took all atention of Iranians. US killed one of major generals of Iran, but also it gives Iranian people a chance to unite against the itself involuntarily. Iran, which has been engaged in protests for a while, united around Soleimani’s funeral. However, that contested advantage situation did not last long. Iran passed to step-2 to take an action after Soleimani’s funeral but it did not happen as expected.

Ukraine Aircraft

Iran gave an answer to the US by firing its missiles targeting some US military bases in Iraq on 8th of January, 2020. Iran stated that approximately 80 American soldier killed in the attack while the US claimed that no one dead but it might be some material damage.

After just hours of Iran attack, international news released breaking news about Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) flight 752 (PS752) was crashed. There were 176 people including the crew in the aircraft. It took attention because it is an aviation crash and it happened just hours after Iran attack.

After crashed of the aircraft, international media sources started to argue about reasons but some of them also indicated that its suspicous timing while they were trying to find association with Iran’s attack. All media outlets focused on the crash and some of airlines started to take precautions regarding the incident. Some airlines such as Lufthansa, Ukraine International Airlines and Air France stopped their flights to Iran-Iraq or using air zone of those countries temporarily.

Iran made a statement that they will not hand over the flight data recorder while they operated remove the wreckage. Iran claimed that they took that decision against any conspiracy theory of CIA or the USA itself. According to Iran, US or CIA could use the incident to decrease Iran’s prestige in international arena.

We need to point that the period with also effects of tech age, developments occur so fast and everything changes in vice versa in hours. Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau made a statement that they had some proofs about Ukraine aircraft incident shows Iran might hit it by mistake. And after hours, there was a video of shooting down of Ukraine aircraft in social media. At last, Iran’s religious leader Hamaney accepted that they shooted down the aircraft by mistake and they will share the flight data recorder with France to make them analyzed. Later, he also apologized from Ukraine and said that they will pay compensation to the families whose people lost their lives in the incident.

Summary

The US killed Iran’s one of major general in another state where is Iraq by drone strike. That incident caused losing prestige pretty much in international arena for Iran.

However, Iranian people united around Soleimani’s funeral so that was a temporarily a good view for Iran. Because even they had a sad incident and they showed all world that they were together, especially while they had struggling protests.

Iran tried to give an answer as possible but they made a huge mistake while they were trying. The incident caused 176 lives loss.

Iran lost prestige against other states, lost significant income based on its air zone and airports due to cancellation of flights or notams about its airside.

Similar situations are also valid for Iraq, some of air carriers took similar precautions for Iraq at least temporarily .

We need to specify that wars or conflicts may bring the actors some advantage such as land, money or power. But it is always temporarily advantage. It clearly seems that coordination, collaboration or mutual agreements between states is more beneficial to make the world better.

Resource

Image: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/timeline-us-iran-tension-since-collapse-of-nuke-deal/1697001 , 18th of Jan , 2020.

The post Analyze: Iran’s position in the international arena after high tension between the US appeared first on Risk Revise.